Statistics don’t care about opinions.
Black Friday Sale!
We’re celebrating two big events at once — Black Friday and the premiere launch of our new Quantified Strategies shop.
To mark the occasion, we’re offering three simple price levels with discounts we will never repeat again.
(PS: the offer applies only to strategies and bundles, not Gold or Platinum memberships.)
We offer the following rebates:
The cart is at least 199 USD: 20% off (Coupon code:APPE8BJC38JC)
The cart is at least 599 USD: 35% off (Coupon code:NNRXDD4VRH1P)
The cart is at least 1995 USD: 50% off (Coupon code:YZNN46W2S8A8)
⏳ Act fast! The offer ends at midnight on December 2nd.
Investor Regret Strategy (23% Annual Returns)
Traders or investors who sell a stock or asset are unlikely to buy again if the price goes up (after the sale). This might lead to a profitable trading strategy.
Laguerre RSI (A Different RSI)
What Is the Laguerre RSI? This article is a practical short guide for traders (including a strategy):
Backtest of the Week
We are entering a very favorable period for stocks.
Below is the equity curve for the S&P 500 from the close of Black Friday until the first trading day of the year:
📊 Results:
📈 Avg gain per trade: 1.4%
📊 CAGR (annual returns): 1.4%
✅ Win Rate: 68%
⏱️ Exposure: 9.5%
⚠️ Max Drawdown: -15%
This signal has preceded 12-month S&P gains almost every time.
Strong breadth returns exactly when history says it should.
Seasonality favors more upside after strong pre-Thanksgiving years.
Big FX moves can be predicted from the slope of implied volatility.
• Hedge Funds Just Logged Their Biggest 2-Day Buying Spree in Months
Sharp VIX drops like this have tended to precede solid stock gains.
Two commodity markets enter historically weak periods.
😵 Behavioral Bias of the Week
Anchoring bias
Anchoring bias in trading often leads to the Martingale bias: to lower the cost price, you use a double down trading strategy. Unfortunately, the market has no memory, so it won’t care about your cost price.
😵 Risk Reward Ratio
The risk-reward ratio is a key tool in investing that compares the potential profit to the potential loss of an investment, guiding investors in evaluating the attractiveness of a trade; ideal ratios are often cited as 1:3.
Strategy Bundles
Did you know that we offer strategy bundles? If you want to dip your toe in the water, this might be the perfect option.
PS: You can buy bundles for a substantial rebate before the 2nd of December (Black Friday sale) - please see the top of the email.
Here is the “beginner” bundle for S&P 500 (SPY), which contains 4 strategies (several years out of sample results):
📊 Results:
📈 Avg gain per trade: 0.7%
📊 CAGR (annual returns): 13%
✅ Win Rate: 74%
⏱️ Exposure: 27%
⚠️ Max Drawdown: -23%
🧠 Quote of the Week
We become what we consistently do.
Brett Steenbarger