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A Profitable Strategy For Stocks
We show you a day trading strategy based on the opening price, complete with trading rules. 1
Why Retail Traders Lose in the Options Market
From November 2019 to June 2021, the aggregate portfolio of retail investors suffered losses estimated at $2.1 billion.
Find out why you are almost certain to lose money if you trade options.
Gold Vs. Bitcoin: The Ultimate Showdown Between Physical and Digital Wealth
Despite the similarities, gold and bitcoin are fundamentally more different than alike. We take a deep dive into the two assets.
Backtest of the Week
🔍 Strategy: Bitcoin performance in October |
Buy: Buy the close of September
Sell: Sell the close of October
Test period: 2014 - today
Includes slippage & commissions (0.05%)
📊 Results: |
📈 Avg gain per trade: 17.7%
✅ Win Rate: 83%
⏱️ Exposure: 9%
⚠️ Max Drawdown: -12%
🧠 Quant Mindset
“Volatility Is Not Risk”
Don’t confuse volatility with danger.
True risk = losing your edge, not having red days.
🔹 A system can be volatile but still robust
🔹 Avoid judging risk by emotion — use stats
✅ Tip: Use rolling Sharpe or MAR ratios to monitor live system health.
😵 Behavioral Bias of the Week
Recency Bias
We overreact to what just happened and underweight longer-term results.
Examples:
Ditching a good system after three losing trades
Going “all in” on what just worked in the last 2 weeks
💡 Focus on long-term expectancy - not short-term pain.
📏 Quant Concept of the Week
Kelly Criterion: Bet Size That Builds Wealth
The Kelly formula helps you size trades for maximum long-term growth, based on your edge and risk.
🎯 Formula (simplified):
Kelly % = Win Rate – (1 – Win Rate) / Risk-Reward Ratio
✅ Pros:
Maximizes geometric returns
Encourages discipline and capital efficiency
⚠️ Caution:
Full Kelly can be aggressive — many quants use Half-Kelly for stability
Sensitive to incorrect inputs — garbage in, ruin out
💡 Use your backtest stats (win rate & payoff ratio) to calculate it and fine-tune your position sizing like a pro.
📊 Trading Edge of The Month
Gold and Platinum subscribers got the following monthly trading edge for GLD:
Avg return per trade: 1.02%
🧠 Quote of the Week
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