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A Profitable Strategy For Stocks
We show you a day trading strategy based on the opening price, complete with trading rules.
Why Retail Traders Lose in the Options Market
From November 2019 to June 2021, the aggregate portfolio of retail investors suffered losses estimated at $2.1 billion.
Find out why you are almost certain to lose money if you trade options.
Gold Vs. Bitcoin: The Ultimate Showdown Between Physical and Digital Wealth
Despite the similarities, gold and bitcoin are fundamentally more different than alike. We take a deep dive into the two assets.
Backtest of the Week
🔍 Strategy: Bitcoin performance in October |
Buy: Buy the close of September
Sell: Sell the close of October
Test period: 2014 - today
Includes slippage & commissions (0.05%)
📊 Results: |
📈 Avg gain per trade: 17.7%
✅ Win Rate: 83%
⏱️ Exposure: 9%
⚠️ Max Drawdown: -12%
🧠 Quant Mindset
“Volatility Is Not Risk”
Don’t confuse volatility with danger.
True risk = losing your edge, not having red days.
🔹 A system can be volatile but still robust
🔹 Avoid judging risk by emotion — use stats
✅ Tip: Use rolling Sharpe or MAR ratios to monitor live system health.
😵 Behavioral Bias of the Week
Recency Bias
We overreact to what just happened and underweight longer-term results.
Examples:
Ditching a good system after three losing trades
Going “all in” on what just worked in the last 2 weeks
💡 Focus on long-term expectancy - not short-term pain.
📏 Quant Concept of the Week
Kelly Criterion: Bet Size That Builds Wealth
The Kelly formula helps you size trades for maximum long-term growth, based on your edge and risk.
🎯 Formula (simplified):
Kelly % = Win Rate – (1 – Win Rate) / Risk-Reward Ratio
✅ Pros:
Maximizes geometric returns
Encourages discipline and capital efficiency
⚠️ Caution:
Full Kelly can be aggressive — many quants use Half-Kelly for stability
Sensitive to incorrect inputs — garbage in, ruin out
💡 Use your backtest stats (win rate & payoff ratio) to calculate it and fine-tune your position sizing like a pro.
📊 Trading Edge of The Month
Gold and Platinum subscribers got the following monthly trading edge for GLD:
Avg return per trade: 1.02%
🧠 Quote of the Week
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